MP Materials Corp.
Materials · Diversified Metals & Mining
Structural: only US-scale rare-earth miner+separator; the only Western alternative to a ~90% China-controlled NdPr supply chain. Mountain Pass produces ~15% of global rare-earth concentrate; Stage II separation now running; Stage III magnet plant in Fort Worth ramps 2026-2027 with $GM as anchor offtake.
- Pentagon $400M preferred-equity stake (2025) + $150M price floor on NdPr - converts $MP into a quasi-strategic asset with a sovereign backstop.
- $AAPL $500M prepayment for US-recycled magnets locks in a non-China consumer-electronics anchor.
- Saudi Ma'aden JV optionality for offshore processing diversifies geopolitical risk away from single-site concentration.
- Magnet supply gap structural through 2030: EV + wind + robotics demand outruns ex-China capacity.
- DoD/IRA tariff + procurement preferences re-rate the Western rare-earth basket vs Chinese NdPr benchmark.
- NdPr spot price is set in Shanghai; China can flood the market and crush realized pricing (saw this 2023-2024).
- Single-asset concentration: Mountain Pass is one mine, one fault line, one permit regime.
- Magnet downstream is execution-heavy - Fort Worth ramp risk, yield risk, customer qualification cycles measured in quarters.
- Capex-intensive vertical integration funded partly via dilutive prefs; FCF inflection still out.
- Thesis depends on US industrial-policy continuity - tariff/IRA reversal would compress the premium.