Wolfspeed, Inc.
Information Technology · Semiconductors
Structural: only Western pure-play scaled on 200mm SiC; SiC TAM tied to EV traction-inverter adoption (toward $2-3B by 2028) and emerging 800V AI-datacenter power-delivery - Wolfspeed sits upstream of both via wafers + devices.
- Mohawk Valley utilization ramp is the single biggest gross-margin lever; each 10pp util adds material GM.
- Renesas $2B SiC wafer pre-pay still drawing down - locked multi-year revenue visibility at known ASPs.
- Post-Chapter-11 cap structure clean: ~$4.6B debt extinguished, going-concern preserved, ~$275M new-money exit financing.
- $750M CHIPS Act funding (approved Oct 2024) backstops Siler City materials capacity.
- 800V SiC server-PSU socket gives an AI-datacenter optionality that didn't exist in the original EV-only thesis.
- EV traction-inverter demand slipping vs 2023 OEM bookings; Tier-1 design-ins (ZF, BorgWarner, Lucid) re-phasing.
- China SiC (StarPower, BYD-internal) compressing device ASPs faster than yield improvements cover.
- Mohawk Valley still cash-burn negative on consolidated EBITDA - utilization story is years, not quarters.
- Renesas pre-pay drawdown means cash-revenue divergence: GAAP revenue lands without cash.
- New equity (cancelled-and-reissued) has zero legacy float memory; thin liquidity through the reorg-overhang window.
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