Aixtron SE (ADR)
Information Technology · Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Structural: MOCVD duopoly with $VECO outside the silicon front-end; SiC/GaN power, GaN RF, micro-LED and photonics each independent demand legs. EU sovereign-semi tailwind (EU Chips Act, German subsidies) plus geographic diversification away from pure $TSM/Korea concentration.
Asset-light vs. $ASML/$AMAT/$LRCX - leverage is to compound-semi capex cycles, not leading-edge silicon.
- SiC power tool demand from EV/grid build-out (Wolfspeed, STMicro, Infineon, onsemi) refills order book
- GaN-on-Si power + GaN RF (5G base stations, defense radar) adds second leg
- Micro-LED ramp at Apple/Samsung display suppliers is binary upside; AIX is sole credible mass-production MOCVD vendor
- Photonics/laser-diode + datacom optical engines (silicon photonics adjacency) opens AI-datacenter pull
- EU Chips Act funding routes capex preferentially to EU-domiciled vendors
- SiC orders softened 2025 on EV slowdown; cyclical revenue trough risk
- China is largest end-market - export controls or retaliation tail risk
- Customer concentration: top-3 customers regularly >40% of revenue
- Micro-LED has been "next year" for five years; no scaled consumer product yet
- ADR is sponsored, thinly traded vs. Frankfurt AIXA.DE; spread + tracking drag
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