Advantest Corporation (ADR)
Information Technology · Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Structural: Advantest is the duopoly leader (with $TER) in SoC automated test equipment, with ~60% share of the high-end AI accelerator test market. AI chip test intensity is rising non-linearly - Blackwell takes ~3x the test time of Hopper, custom ASICs ($AVGO, $MRVL) require new test platforms, and HBM3E/HBM4 stacking doubles test cycles per die.
Revenue is tied to leading-edge wafer starts at $TSM, $INTC foundry, and Samsung.
- AI SoC test bookings inflecting on Blackwell, Rubin, and custom-ASIC ramps; V93000 EXA Scale is the de-facto Blackwell tester
- HBM memory test (T5503) capacity-constrained through 2027; $MU, $HXSCL, Samsung all expanding
- Yen weakness expands JPY-reported margins and ADR EPS
- Recurring service/spares revenue ~25% of total - stickier than equipment cycle suggests
- Capex-light vs $ASML - operating margins running 30%+ in upcycle
- ATE is cyclical - peak-cycle multiple compression risk if AI capex pauses
- Teradyne $TER taking share in mobile SoC test, contesting AI sockets
- ADR liquidity thin (sub-1k daily volume) - fills can slip; TSE 6857 is the primary listing
- China revenue exposure (~15%) at risk from export controls on advanced-node test
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