Coupang, Inc.
Consumer Discretionary · Broadline Retail
Structural: Korean retail TAM ~$540B with online penetration ~37% and Coupang share ~25% of online - duopoly vs Naver Shopping. Owned logistics (100+ fulfillment centers, 30M sqft, last-mile via Coupang Logistics Services) is a 10-year capex moat competitors cannot replicate at speed.
5M (+13% YoY Q1 2026) and revenue/customer up high-single-digits. Developing Offerings (Eats, Play, Taiwan, Farfetch) absorbing ~$200M/quarter EBITDA drag.
(1) Product Commerce margin expansion runway - adj EBITDA margin 7-8% trending toward Amazon NA-style mid-teens; (2) Taiwan replicates Korea playbook, breakeven path 2-3 years post-launch; (3) Farfetch turnaround optionality at near-zero acquisition cost ($500M); (4) Coupang Play + Eats cross-sell into WOW membership (~14M subs) deepens lock-in; (5) FX tailwind if KRW strengthens vs USD.
(1) Korean consumer weakness - household debt 105% of GDP, real wage stagnation pressures GMV; (2) AliExpress + Temu Korea entry compresses 3P take rate; (3) Developing Offerings losses persist longer than guided; (4) Farfetch luxury demand still negative; (5) regulatory - FTC Korea scrutiny on private-label preferencing.
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