Airbus SE (ADR)
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
STRUCTURAL: Half of the global narrowbody duopoly with $BA, but the healthy half. A320neo family backlog ~8,600 units (≈10 yrs production), A321XLR entered service 2024 opening up thin long-haul routes Boeing cannot serve until a clean-sheet MoM/NMA arrives (2030+).
A350 is the only in-production widebody with no open quality FAA cap. Defense leg (Eurofighter, A400M, FCAS) is a direct beneficiary of EU rearmament; ~5% of EU NATO GDP commitments flow through European primes preferentially.
- $BA structural impairment: 737 MAX still capped at 38/mo, 787 door-plug overhang, machinist strike - every $BA slip is an Airbus order win
- A321XLR is the only certified single-aisle XLR; opens TATL routes for low-cost carriers, no Boeing competitor before 2030+
- Backlog ~10 yrs of production = pricing power on every renegotiation and slot allocation
- EU defense rearmament (Eurofighter Tranche 5, FCAS, A400M restart talks)
- Helicopter cycle bottoming; H160/H175 winning offshore + EMS replacement waves
- Production ramp gated by $RTX (engines), $SAF (cabin), Spirit, Premium Aerotec - supplier yield is the binding constraint, not demand
- A220 still loss-making per unit; breakeven slipping to 2026+
- China COMAC C919 ramps in domestic market; reduces Airbus China share of the bull case
- FX: revenue dollar-priced, costs euro-priced - weak USD is a margin compressor
- ADR liquidity thin vs Paris ordinary $AIR.PA; 1:4 ratio adds rebalance friction
No key levels recorded for this ticker.