Emerson Electric Co.
Industrials · Electrical Equipment
Post-portfolio-reshape industrial-automation pure-play. 2B), AspenTech consolidated 2024 (~$9B remaining). Two reportable segments: Intelligent Devices (measurement, valves, discrete) + Software & Control (DeltaV DCS, AspenTech, NI). Levered to LNG capex, US reshoring, semi fab buildout ($INTC, $TSM, $MU Idaho), datacenter thermal + power infra.
Sits in cooling-dc-infra bubble for liquid-cooling controls + chiller automation read-through alongside $VRT $ETN $TT.
- DeltaV DCS installed base = sticky multi-decade aftermarket; switching cost high
- LNG project backlog (US Gulf + Qatar expansions) drives measurement + valve content
- AspenTech consolidation removes minority drag, lifts software mix toward 20%+
- Reshoring + CHIPS Act fab buildout = direct semi process-tools tailwind
- Datacenter cooling/power content via Appleton + control logic into hyperscaler builds
- Process automation cycle peaks lag LNG FID by 12-18mo; deceleration risk into 2027
- AspenTech integration cost + revenue synergy timeline still front-loaded
- China industrial capex soft; ~10% rev exposure
- Discrete automation (Branson, ASCO) cyclically exposed to auto + general industrial
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