Elbit Systems Ltd.
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Structural: Largest non-state Israeli defense prime. Backlog has doubled since 2022 (~$22B+ by FY25) as European NATO members and IDF replenishment orders stack. Elbit Systems of America gives onshore US access for DoD/IDIQ work without the foreign-supplier penalty.
Diversified across UAS (Hermes/Skylark), EW, C4ISR, electro-optics, artillery (PULS/ATMOS), and digital soldier systems - not single-platform exposure.
- European rearmament cycle (Germany, UK, Netherlands, Romania, Greece) is multi-year, not one print.
- IDF post-Oct-2023 reset funds munitions, UAS attrition replacement, active-protection, EW upgrades for 5+ years.
- PULS rocket-artillery system winning vs HIMARS in cost-constrained NATO bids (Germany, Netherlands, Denmark).
- Iron Dome / David's Sling / Arrow content is recurring - interceptor consumption is structural, not episodic.
- US subsidiary scaling night-vision + helmet display contracts; insulates from any USD/ILS tape bombs.
- Stock has tripled since 2022 - much of the rearmament thesis is already priced.
- Sovereign concentration risk: Israeli political backlash or arms-export restrictions (Germany, UK, Spain) compress addressable market.
- ILS-denominated cost base, USD/EUR-denominated revenue - currency swings hit margin without hedge slippage.
- Working-capital intensive: backlog growth ties up cash; FCF lumpy vs reported EBIT.
- Peers ($RTX $LMT $GD $LDOS $KTOS) all chasing the same NATO budget; bid discipline matters.
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