Fluor Corporation
Industrials · Construction & Engineering
STRUCTURAL - pure-play EPC on the three megatrend capex cycles: (1) LNG export buildout (Driftwood, Rio Grande, Calcasieu Pass II adjacent), (2) advanced-tech mega-facilities (semis fabs, hyperscale data centers, lithium/battery), (3) US DOE/DOD nuclear cleanup + new-build SMR via 56%+ stake in $SMR (NuScale).
Backlog ~$30B+ skewed toward reimbursable (lower-margin, lower-risk) post-2020 fixed-price restructuring.
- $SMR stake alone re-rated to multi-billion mark-to-market; Fluor sum-of-parts trades at discount to NuScale carry + core EPC
- LNG Phase 2 cycle (US export capacity doubling 2025-2028) routes through Fluor + $KBR + $MDR as primary EPC trio
- Hyperscaler + semi-fab capex (Intel, TSMC AZ, Micron NY) feeds Urban Solutions backlog
- DOE Hanford/Savannah River cleanup contracts are recurring, cost-plus, decade-long
- Reimbursable mix shift de-risks the historical fixed-price blowup pattern (2018-2020)
- Sum-of-parts thesis depends on $SMR price - NuScale is pre-revenue, deployment slipping right
- Fixed-price legacy projects still bleed; project-charge headlines recur quarterly
- Margins structurally thin (mid-single-digit EBIT) vs $PWR or $J pure-utility comps
- Capex cycle is cyclical - LNG FIDs pause if Henry Hub strip collapses or permitting freezes
- Government segment exposed to continuing-resolution + DOGE-style federal cost reviews
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