MercadoLibre, Inc.
Consumer Discretionary · Broadline Retail
Latam structural compounder. Marketplace GMV growing ~25-30% FX-neutral; fintech TPV growing ~35-45% FX-neutral; credit book ~$6B+ and scaling. Three-flywheel model (commerce attracts users → wallet captures payments → credit monetizes data) means each segment lowers CAC for the others.
Operating margin expanding as Envios reaches scale and fintech mix shifts from acquiring (low-margin) toward credit (high-margin).
- #1 marketplace share in AR/BR/MX with widening logistics moat (Envios same-day in 40+ cities)
- Mercado Pago TPV ~$50B+ run-rate, growing faster than GMV, off-platform TPV now majority
- Credit book underwriting improving - NPLs stable mid-teens despite rapid book growth
- Argentina exposure (~25% of revenue) is asymmetric upside on Milei normalization
- Latam e-commerce penetration ~12% vs ~25% in developed markets - multi-decade runway
- $AMZN México expansion + Shein/Temu cross-border pressure on take-rates
- Argentina FX volatility distorts reported financials quarter to quarter
- Credit book is the swing factor - any LATAM macro shock hits provisions hard
- Brazil interest-rate cycle directly impacts fintech net interest margin
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