Red Cat Holdings, Inc.
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Structural: SRR Tranche 2 prime - Teal 2 won the sole-source US Army program of record in 2024, ceiling-value 5,880 units over 5 years. NDAA Section 848 + DJI ban tailwind forces all DoD + allied buyers off Chinese sUAS onto Blue UAS-listed primes; RCAT is one of ~3 credible US small-drone OEMs at scale.
- SRR ramp visibility - backlog stepped from <$10M to $80M+ post-Army award; FlightWave Edge 130 won SOCOM tranche separately
- Vertically integrated post-Teal acquisition; Salt Lake City production scaling from ~100/mo to ~1,000/mo
- Optionality on Army Future Tactical UAS (FTUAS), Marines, USCG, Ukraine, NATO follow-on buys
- ITAR-clean cap table + Blue UAS list = the only DoD-procurable peer set is $AVAV, $KTOS, $ONDS
- Cash runway extended via 2026 equity raises; no near-term going-concern overhang
- Gross margins still negative at production ramp; opex absorbs SRR revenue for now
- Customer concentration - Army SRR is the entire bull case; delivery slip or unit cut craters the multiple
- Heavy share count growth (89M+); SRR unit economics must prove out before next raise
- $AVAV Switchblade + $KTOS optionality could squeeze SRR follow-ons
- Component supply chain (NDAA-compliant batteries, optics, comms) is thin and inflationary
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