Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.
Communication Services · Interactive Home Entertainment
7B Zynga acquisition (2022) - recurrent consumer spending (microtransactions, virtual currency, ads) is now ~80% of bookings, dampening the historical hit-driven cyclicality. GTA franchise is the highest-grossing entertainment IP ever (GTA V shipped 215M+ units across three console generations); NBA 2K + Borderlands + Civilization round out durable annualized revenue.
- GTA VI launch (Rockstar guided fall 2026) is the largest catalyst in gaming history; Wall Street models $3B+ in first-year bookings vs GTA V's $1B opening weekend
- Online attach (GTA Online + RDR Online) compounds for 5-10 years post-launch; recurrent spend is structurally higher-margin than unit sales
- Zynga (Match Factory, Toon Blast, Empires & Puzzles) gives mobile distribution + UA muscle that legacy console publishers $EA $UBI lack
- Operating leverage: GTA VI ships into a ~$300M/quarter R&D base that's been carrying the cost for 7+ years
- GTA VI delay risk - Rockstar has slipped every major title (GTA V, RDR2); a slip to FY28 resets the model
- Mobile (Zynga) decelerating; IDFA headwinds + ad-LTV compression still in the numbers
- $3.3B net debt post-Zynga; FY25 GAAP operating loss reflects amortization + impairments
- NBA 2K facing competitive pressure from $EA's College Football revival + potential FIFA-style fatigue
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