XPeng Inc.
Consumer Discretionary · Automobile Manufacturers
4% in 3Q25 (vs ~negative through 1H24). Bull case: scale + Volkswagen JV royalty stream + XNGP as the most credible non-Tesla city ADAS in China. Bear case: still cash-burning, brutal China NEV price war, eVTOL/humanoid optionality is years from monetization.
- 30k+ monthly deliveries by 4Q25, ~2.5x YoY, Mona M03 carrying the volume
- GM inflected to 14.4% in 3Q25 from negative print 18 months earlier
- Volkswagen platform/ADAS JV (signed 2024, royalties from 2026) = high-margin tech revenue
- XNGP rolled out city-wide in China, only credible non-$TSLA peer on in-house ADAS
- AeroHT eVTOL pre-orders + Iron humanoid = free optionality
- Still net-loss, FCF negative; cash runway depends on continued ATM raises
- Mona M03 ASP <$20k drags blended ASP, mix risk if P7+/X9 slows
- China NEV price war (BYD, $LI, $NIO, Xiaomi SU7) compresses any margin gain
- Tariffs/EU CBAM block the export safety valve that $BYDDY uses
- Flying-car/humanoid lines = capex sink with no near-term revenue line
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