Archer Aviation Inc.
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Structural: eVTOL is a regulatory race - FAA Type Certification gates revenue and only $JOBY and $ACHR are credible candidates in 2026. Archer's edge is (i) Stellantis ($STLA) as exclusive contract manufacturer absorbing capex on the Covington GA plant (650 aircraft/yr at scale), (ii) United Airlines ($UAL) $1B+ conditional order anchoring US demand, (iii) first-mover position in UAE via Abu Dhabi Aviation + Etihad partnerships targeting H2 2026 commercial launch, (iv) Anduril JV for defense hybrid-VTOL widening the TAM beyond passenger.
cert timeline holding (piloted transition flights complete Q4 2025); Stellantis equity + manufacturing de-risks production ramp; UAE launch could generate first revenue ahead of FAA approval; defense optionality via Anduril is non-dilutive TAM expansion; $2B+ cash runway through cert milestone.
pre-revenue with ~$100M/qtr burn; FAA cert slip risk is binary (Joby ahead on flight-test hours); unit economics of urban air taxi unproven at scale (battery cycle life, vertiport throughput, pilot supply); equity dilution recurring (multiple ATM raises 2024-2025); commercialization timeline keeps drifting right (originally 2024 → 2025 → late 2026).
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