Affirm Holdings, Inc.
Financials · Consumer Finance
Pure-play BNPL leader with structural rate sensitivity and a widening US merchant moat ($AMZN, $WMT, $SHOP, $TGT all live). Unit economics hinge on funding spread (warehouse + forward-flow + securitization) vs. consumer APR cap (~36%) and merchant discount rate.
Affirm Card is the durable consumer wedge - converts one-off checkout users into recurring transactors and extends BNPL into offline / non-integrated merchants.
- $AMZN + $WMT + $SHOP exclusivity / preferred placement = retail moat hard to displace
- Affirm Card is compounding (DAU + GMV per active growing) - bridges to neobank optionality
- Falling SOFR widens net take rate without raising consumer APR
- 0% APR merchant-subsidized loans are a fee business (gross margin >> interest book)
- Loss rates running below underwriting model - vintages 2024-2025 holding
- Capital-markets funded: any ABS spread widening hits gain-on-sale margin immediately
- Regulatory overhang - CFPB BNPL rule treats them as credit cards (disclosures, dispute rights)
- $KLAR (Klarna) IPO + $PYPL Pay-in-4 + Apple Pay Later compress merchant take rate
- Credit cycle exposure - sub-prime mix higher than card peers, no deposit funding cushion