Arqit Quantum Inc.
Information Technology · Software
Structural: pure-play on the "harvest now, decrypt later" thesis - every long-lived secret in transit today is exposed once a cryptographically relevant quantum computer ($IBM, $IONQ, $RGTI, $QBTS) lands. 0 forces NSS migration by 2033, NIST PQC standards (FML-KEM, ML-DSA) published Aug-2024 set the civilian clock.
ARQQ pitches symmetric-key agreement as complement / alternative to lattice PQC ($PANW, $CRWD adjacent).
(1) software-only delivery - no QKD fiber capex, ships on commodity HW; (2) UK MoD + US DoD + Juniper + Intelsat + BT pilots cited in filings give defense optionality; (3) tiny float + sub-$100M cap → torque on any single Tier-1 contract; (4) cap-table cleaner post 1-for-25 reverse split + 2025 raises; (5) NATO + Five Eyes timeline = visible 2026-2028 catalyst window.
(1) symmetric-KA is non-standard vs NIST-blessed lattice PQC - hyperscalers ($MSFT, $GOOG, $AMZN) already shipping ML-KEM in TLS, crowding ARQQ out of cloud-native stack; (2) revenue still single-digit millions, persistent operating losses, repeated dilution; (3) Nasdaq compliance history + low float = exchange + liquidity risk; (4) pilots have not converted to scaled recurring contracts despite 3+ years; (5) binary contract dependency - one DoD delay swings the equity 30%+.
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