Commvault Systems, Inc.
Information Technology · Systems Software
Structural: Cyber resilience is the new budget line - backups are no longer IT infrastructure but a security control, mandated by SEC disclosure rules, NYDFS, DORA and cyber insurance underwriters. Commvault sits in Gartner MQ Leaders quadrant alongside $RBRK and Cohesity (Veritas-merged), with the broadest workload coverage (~30 clouds, SaaS apps, mainframe).
- Subscription ARR ~$930M growing 28% YoY; SaaS ARR (Metallic) ~$235M growing 65%+ - classic SaaS re-rating setup as mix shifts past 50%.
- Cleanroom Recovery + Cloud Rewind productize the post-breach restore workflow that CISOs now own - pricing power above legacy backup SKUs.
- FCF margin ~22% with $760M+ net cash; capital-light, no debt, repurchasing 3-4% of float annually.
- Land-and-expand into security stack via Clumio acquisition (S3/cloud-native data) closes the gap vs $RBRK Zero Trust positioning.
- $RBRK IPO at premium multiple reset competitive narrative; Cohesity-Veritas combination creates a scale incumbent.
- Hyperscaler-native backup ($AMZN AWS Backup, $MSFT Azure Backup) prices toward zero for single-cloud customers - TAM compression at the low end.
- Term subscription revenue still ~50% of mix - optical headwind as it converts to ratable SaaS, gross margin dilution risk.
- Enterprise IT spend cycle remains choppy; deal slippage is the recurring print-week risk.
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