eBay Inc.
Consumer Discretionary · Broadline Retail
Structural read: eBay is a slow-growth marketplace cash machine repositioning around defensible verticals while $AMZN and $SHOP eat horizontal e-commerce. GMV roughly flat ($73B run-rate), but focus categories grow mid-single-digits and ads scale faster than the take-rate, lifting margins.
Buyback + dividend absorb FCF; share count down ~30% since 2020.
- 1P ads (~2.2% of GMV) still below $AMZN/$MELI take and growing double-digits
- Focus categories (sneakers/watches/cards/P&A) compound GMV-per-buyer; authentication moat is real
- ~$2B+ annual buyback on ~$50B cap = ~4% float reduction/yr
- GenAI listing tools (magical listing, background removal) cut friction for casual sellers
- Trading-cards tailwind from sports/Pokemon resurgence; cards now a multi-billion vertical
- Active buyers structurally declining (~132M, down from 185M peak); GMV growth depends on per-buyer spend
- Horizontal categories (electronics, home) bleed share to $AMZN, $TEMU, $WMT, Facebook Marketplace
- Take-rate ceiling visible - pushing higher accelerates seller churn
- Tariff exposure on cross-border (China seller base) under shifting US policy
- Re-rating bound by no-growth narrative; multiple compression risk if buyback pace slows
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