Evolus, Inc.
Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Structural: pure-play aesthetic injectables challenger in a duopoly long held by $ABBV Botox + Juvederm and $RVNC Daxxify. Jeuveau is the #2 US neurotoxin by share among new accounts; Evolysse adds a second leg (HA fillers) into a ~$2B US category where AbbVie owns ~70% share.
Asset-light commercial model - manufacturing outsourced to Daewoong (toxin) and Symatese (fillers), Evolus runs sales force + brand.
(1) Jeuveau share gains accelerating in cash-pay aesthetic channel insulated from PBMs / Medicare; (2) Evolysse launch doubles addressable revenue per practice without new sales infrastructure; (3) operating leverage - gross margin ~70%, SG&A largely fixed, every incremental dollar drops; (4) international expansion (EU, Canada, Australia) still early; (5) $ABBV Botox patent expirations + biosimilar pressure could compress incumbent pricing power.
(1) discretionary cash-pay demand cyclical - recession shrinks aesthetic spend before staples; (2) Daewoong arbitration history and Medytox trade-secret litigation overhang; (3) Revance ($RVNC) Daxxify + Galderma Relfydess crowding the long-duration toxin niche; (4) Evolysse launch execution risk vs entrenched Juvederm injector loyalty; (5) cash burn - has run at operating loss, dilution risk if scale curve slips; (6) single-source supplier concentration on both product lines.
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