Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
Materials · Copper
6M oz Au/yr (mostly Grasberg byproduct). Grasberg block-cave is one of the few Tier-1 copper assets remaining; Cerro Verde + Morenci are long-life, low-cost. Indonesia stake structure: PT-FI is 49% FCX / 51% Indonesian (post-2018 divestiture), with FCX operator + 81% economic interest through 2041.
- AI datacenter buildout + EV + grid copper intensity (~65kg Cu/EV vs ~23kg ICE; ~3-5x grid copper per MW of renewables vs gas)
- Copper grade declines industry-wide + 10-15yr greenfield lead times = structural supply deficit thesis
- Grasberg underground ramp adds ~1.6B lbs Cu through 2041
- Net-cash balance sheet; dividend + variable performance payout
- US permitting tailwind on domestic copper (Resolution, Safford expansion)
- Copper price beta - FCX is a levered copper call; recession = drawdown
- Grasberg sovereign risk (Indonesian smelter mandate, export licenses, royalty resets)
- Own copper grade declining at Morenci + Cerro Verde - capex per lb rising
- Smelter outage at PT-FI Manyar (2024 fire) - concentrate export disruption recurrence risk
- Molybdenum + gold are price-takers; no hedging program
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