Alphabet Inc.
Communication Services · Interactive Media & Services
Structural: vertically integrated AI stack - own model (Gemini), own silicon (TPU v5/v6, the only viable $NVDA alternative at scale), own cloud (GCP), own distribution (Search, YouTube, Android, Workspace, ~3B users). Gemini is the only frontier model not paying NVDA the GPU tax.
GCP is fastest-growing top-3 hyperscaler, taking share from $AWS/$AZURE on AI workloads.
(1) TPU moat - Anthropic, Apple, Meta inference all run on TPU; capex efficiency vs GPU peers is the underappreciated leg. (2) YouTube is the largest video platform globally and structurally underpriced vs Netflix on hours-watched. (3) Waymo is the only scaled robotaxi in the US (LA/SF/Phoenix/Austin) - option value not in numbers.
(4) Search ad revenue still growing despite AI Overviews; monetization risk overestimated. (5) Cash machine: ~$100B annual FCF funds AI capex without dilution.
(1) DOJ remedy on Search distribution (Apple TAC, Chrome divestiture risk) is the only true existential overhang. (2) AI Overviews / ChatGPT browser / Perplexity erode the long-tail query funnel that monetizes best. (3) Capex acceleration ($75B+ '26) compresses near-term margins; ROI on AI infra still unproven.
(4) GCP margin gap to AWS/Azure persists. (5) Regulatory pressure compounds - EU DMA, UK CMA, US ad-tech case all open.
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