International Business Machines Corporation
Information Technology · IT Services
" The 2026 tape disagrees: revenue reaccelerated to +9% in Q1 2026 on an 11% Software book (Red Hat, Data, watsonx) and a +51% IBM Z mainframe cycle, with free cash flow running ~$15B. The re-rating leg is quantum - a >$10B five-year commitment plus a US Commerce Dept letter of intent (~$1B grant + a minority federal equity stake) to co-build the Anderon 300mm quantum foundry in Albany, positioning IBM as the policy-backed Western quantum champion targeting fault-tolerant systems by 2029.
Bull case: Software + quantum compound while the mainframe super-cycle funds the bet. Bear case: Consulting stays low-single-digit, quantum revenue is years out, and the late-May repricing (~$222 to ~$296 in eight sessions) already pulled forward much of the optionality.
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