Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
Financials · Financial Exchanges & Data
Structural: three-segment toll-bridge. (1) Exchanges = NYSE listings + Brent/Gasoil/ags/financial futures with regulatory moats and inelastic open-interest demand. (2) Fixed Income & Data = subscription analytics, evaluated pricing, ICE BofA index licensing - sticky recurring revenue.
(3) Mortgage Tech = Encompass (origination) + MSP (servicing) + Black Knight data, ~50% US mortgage workflow share post-2027 integration.
futures volumes scale with macro vol (energy transition, rates regime change); FI&D recurring grows mid-single-digit through cycle; mortgage-tech operating leverage as US originations normalize off 2027 cycle low; capital-light compounder with 55%+ adj operating margins; consistent buybacks + dividend.
NYSE listings share losing ground to Nasdaq ($NDAQ) in tech IPOs; CME ($CME) dominates US rates + equity-index futures and could press into ICE energy; mortgage-tech revenue is housing-cycle exposed and integration of Black Knight is still digesting; rate-cut delay keeps origination volumes structurally below 2027; regulatory overhang on clearing fees and listing economics in EU.
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