Keysight Technologies, Inc.
Information Technology · Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components
Structural read: Keysight is the picks-and-shovels test layer beneath every node transition, every comms standard, and every AI cluster build-out. Oscilloscopes + VNAs + signal generators are the validation gate before any silicon, optical lane, or RF stack ships in volume - captive position with $TER and Anritsu as the only meaningful counterparties at the high end.
6T Ethernet, RoCE, AI fabric).
- AI training-cluster build-out (800G→1.6T optical, NVLink/UEC fabric validation) lifts Communications Solutions test demand 2026-2028
- Every node shrink ($TSM N2/A16, $INTC 18A, $SMCI server refresh) requires new high-bandwidth scopes + parametric test
- 6G research spend ramping at carriers + standards bodies (3GPP Rel-20/21); Keysight is the default lab vendor
- Aero/def segment benefits from EW + radar modernization (long-cycle, low-beta)
- $9B+ backlog provides visibility; gross margin 60%+ structural
- China revenue exposure (~15%) + export controls on advanced test gear to Chinese semis ($SMIC, $YMTC) is a recurring overhang
- Communications Solutions cyclical - 2023-2024 trough showed orders can drop 20%+ when semi capex pauses
- Auto electronics (EV test) softer through 2025-2026 as the EV ramp slows
- Premium multiple (~25x fwd EPS) requires re-acceleration; flat revenue = de-rating risk
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