The Coca-Cola Company
Consumer Staples · Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
STRUCTURAL: Concentrate-and-brand IP owner sitting on top of franchised bottler system - capex outsourced, KO collects pricing/mix on global beverage demand. Top-line algo over LT is ~mid-single pricing/mix + low-single volume; FX a recurring cyclical drag for USD reporter.
- Pricing power: 5y of mid-to-high single digit organic growth led by price/mix, not volume; brand-tier pricing absorbs commodity inflation
- Fairlife premium dairy is the hidden compounder - high-single revenue contribution growing double-digits, structurally higher margin than CSDs
- Refranchising done; bottler system reset since 2017; asset-light EBIT margin re-rated 25%→30%
- Emerging market volume runway: India, Africa per-capita servings still fraction of US/Mexico
- Dividend Aristocrat (63yr streak); $WMT-grade earnings predictability for income mandates
- GLP-1 demand destruction overhang on sugary SKUs ($NVO $LLY users skew away from soda)
- US CSD volumes structurally flat-to-down for a decade; growth is price-only at home
- USD strength = persistent reported-FX drag (60%+ revenue ex-US)
- Health/sugar tax regulatory creep across EU/LatAm
- Multiple (~22x fwd) prices a defensive premium that compresses when rates fall and risk-on returns
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