Moderna, Inc.
Health Care · Biotechnology
Pure-play mRNA platform in post-COVID rebase. Spikevax revenue stepped down from ~$18B (2022) to mid-single-digit billions and trending lower; mRESVIA launch is early and competes with $PFE Abrysvo + $GSK Arexvy. Cash runway and pipeline conversion (flu, combo, CMV, INT) drive the structural read, not next quarter.
- Only listed pure-play mRNA platform; reusable LNP + manufacturing across infectious disease + oncology
- INT/mRNA-4157 melanoma adjuvant readouts with $MRK Keytruda = first non-infectious mRNA shot on goal
- Flu (mRNA-1010) + flu/COVID combo (mRNA-1083) target a multi-billion seasonal market
- ~$9B cash + investments cushions multi-year burn while pipeline matures
- Cost program targeting opex reduction into 2027 extends runway
- COVID demand structurally lower; ex-COVID revenue still de minimis
- mRESVIA enters a 3-player RSV market already taken by $PFE + $GSK
- Operating losses widening as R&D stays high vs declining top line
- Pipeline binary; INT readouts + flu efficacy gates are pass/fail
- No second commercial franchise yet contributing meaningful revenue