Motorola Solutions, Inc.
Information Technology · Communications Equipment
Structural: monopoly-grade LMR franchise in NA public safety with effectively no peer at scale (Harris/L3 distant #2), layered with two double-digit growth legs - Video Security (Avigilon AI cameras + access control via Openpath/Ava) and Software/Command Center - funded by a sticky services tail.
(1) LMR refresh + APX NEXT P25 cycle drives multi-year hardware tailwind; (2) Video + Software now >$3B run-rate, growing low-double-digits with software margins; (3) ~$14B backlog and federal/state/local budgets remain countercyclical; (4) FedRAMP / CJIS moat on cloud command center; (5) buybacks + steady dividend, ROIC consistently >20%.
(1) trades at premium multiple vs comms-equipment peers - multiple compression risk if growth slows below 8%; (2) public safety AI surveillance faces civil-liberties scrutiny ($AXON-style headline risk); (3) FirstNet ($T-built) is a long-tail LMR substitution risk via LTE/5G push-to-talk; (4) heavy government concentration = procurement timing volatility; (5) M&A integration risk as Video segment compounds via tuck-ins.
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