TLRY

Structural: Largest Canadian LP by revenue, #1 cannabis market share in Canada and Germany medical, top-5 US craft brewer post the 2023 ABInBev brand acquisition ($85M cash for 8 craft beer brands). Beverage-alcohol segment (~$200M annualized) provides non-cannabis cashflow + US distribution rails ready for federal cannabis legalization.

International medical cannabis exposure via Aphria Germany + Tilray Portugal + CC Pharma EU distribution.

Bull case:

- US federal rescheduling (Schedule III) or SAFE Banking removes 280E tax penalty and unlocks institutional capital

- German adult-use rollout (legalized April 2024) drives EU medical-to-rec optionality where Tilray holds #1 medical share

- Beverage portfolio + distribution rails = ready-made US cannabis-infused beverage platform once legal

- $250M+ cash + convertible notes restructured; survival risk lower than smaller LPs

- M&A optionality: HEXO + Truss + ABI craft brand consolidation playbook

Bear case:

- Canadian rec market remains oversupplied with price compression; segment gross margin pressured

- Beverage segment growth flat ex-acquisitions; craft beer category in secular decline

- Chronic share dilution (~946M shares vs ~100M at 2018 IPO) funds losses, not growth

- US legalization timeline keeps slipping; rescheduling stuck in DEA review

- Persistent adjusted EBITDA losses on a GAAP basis; cash burn requires continued capital raises