Autodesk, Inc.
Information Technology · Application Software
Structural: dominant CAD/BIM incumbent with multi-decade workflow lock-in across AEC + manufacturing; subscription pivot complete (~97% recurring) and transacted-billings model in place since FY24. AEC end-markets (~50% of revenue) benefit from infrastructure spend, prefab/modular construction, and BIM mandates in EU/Singapore/UK.
Fusion is the cloud-native bet against $PTC Creo + $DASTY CATIA in SMB manufacturing.
0% stake (Mar 2026) forcing margin discipline - non-GAAP op margin guided 39-40% FY27 vs ~36% FY25, with credible 45%+ path on opex normalization; transacted model lifts billings/FCF visibility; price increases + named-user enforcement compounding ARPU; AI copilots (Forma, Fusion AI) defendable upsell on entrenched seats; AEC backlog from US infra bill + UK/EU BIM mandates; buyback pace doubled post-activist.
enterprise IT budget scrutiny pressures seat growth in non-AEC; $BSY (Bentley) + nemetschek encroach in AEC infrastructure niches; Fusion still sub-scale vs CATIA/Creo in regulated manufacturing; SBC ~14% of revenue dilutes GAAP earnings and offsets buybacks; FX headwind from ~40% non-US billings; activist demands may force one-time restructuring charges; Adobe-style maturation risk as subscription tailwind fully amortized.
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