Intuit Inc.
Information Technology · Application Software
Structural: $INTU runs the rails for ~10M US small businesses (QuickBooks) and ~45M tax filers (TurboTax) - two regulator-shaped monopolies where switching cost is workflow lock-in, not product preference. Credit Karma adds 130M+ US member graph; Mailchimp bolts on SMB marketing.
AI Assist is the next compounding layer: every CPA hour automated drops into ProTax margin, every SMB transaction auto-categorized lifts QuickBooks ARPU.
- QuickBooks Online + payroll + payments = 3-product attach inside same SMB seat, ARPU compounding ~15%/yr
- TurboTax Live (assisted/full-service tier) keeps stealing share from H&R Block - assisted = 3-5x DIY ARPU
- Credit Karma re-accelerating post-rate-cycle as auto + personal-loan partners reopen marketplaces
- Intuit Assist defends the moat against AI-native upstarts (Pilot, Bench, Found) - incumbents with data graph win
- Mid-Market (Intuit Enterprise Suite) opens upmarket TAM previously owned by $ORCL NetSuite + $SAGE
- IRS Direct File expansion is an existential TurboTax overhang (~30% of segment revenue at risk over 5-10y)
- AI-native bookkeeping startups undercut QuickBooks on price with similar Assist features
- Credit Karma earnings remain rate-cycle hostage; partner marketplace can re-stall
- Multiple compression risk: trades ~30x fwd earnings on mid-teens growth, no margin for guide-down
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