Comcast Corporation
Communication Services · Media
Structural: legacy cable broadband incumbent in secular decay - fiber overbuilders ($T fiber, $VZ Fios, AT&T Fiber) and FWA from $TMUS/$VZ have flipped Xfinity broadband net adds negative since 2023, ending decades of pricing power. Connectivity segment still ~55% of EBITDA.
NBCUniversal mix: parks resilient (Epic Universe opened May 2025 in Orlando), film hit-driven, Peacock losing money but narrowing. Sky Europe drag persists. Cap return story: ~$13B/yr to buybacks + dividend, ~10x P/E vs S&P 22x reflects terminal-value debate.
(1) Peacock path to profitability 2026+ as content spend rationalizes and NBA rights kick in Oct 2025. (2) Epic Universe drives parks EBITDA step-change through 2027. (3) Wireless MVNO ($TMUS host) reaching scale, converging broadband bundle.
(4) Buyback at ~10% FCF yield mechanically compounds EPS. (5) Versant spinoff (cable networks ex-Bravo) unlocks SOTP value 2026.
(1) Broadband net losses accelerating - fiber + FWA structurally cheaper. (2) Linear TV ad revenue in terminal decline, accelerating cord-cut. (3) Peacock still ~$3B annual loss vs $NFLX/$DIS+ scale. (4) Parks cyclical, Epic Universe ramp competes with $DIS Orlando.
(5) ~$95B net debt limits buyback flexibility if EBITDA compresses. (6) Wireless economics dependent on $TMUS wholesale renegotiation 2028.
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