AT&T Inc.
Communication Services · Integrated Telecommunication Services
$T is a connectivity utility re-rated as a fiber + 5G converged-bundle story post-WarnerMedia spin. Structural read: telco capex peak passed (2023-2024 5G mid-band buildout done), fiber FCF inflecting as passings monetize at ~40% take-rate, and the $VZ/$T/$TMUS oligopoly holds postpaid ARPU pricing power into the 2026 unlimited-tier reset cycle.
DirecTV minority stake fully divested 2024 - balance sheet now clean of legacy media drag. Sub-$30 share price prices in zero terminal growth despite ~6% dividend yield and fiber NPV.
• Fiber passings ~28M → target 60M by 2030; ~40% take-rate compounds Consumer Wireline FCF without further capex step-up
• Postpaid phone net adds positive 6 straight years; churn trough of triad (<0.85%)
• Net debt / EBITDA ~2.8x and falling; investment-grade refinancing window open
• Capex intensity peaked 2023 ($24B); FCF guide raised to ~$18B run-rate
• Cable MVNOs ($CHTR/$CMCSA Xfinity Mobile) re-accelerating postpaid share at low end
• Fiber overbuild risk from $TMUS fixed-wireless + cable DOCSIS 4.0 in suburban density bands
• Legacy Business Wireline (copper TDM) in secular -10%/yr decline, drags consolidated growth
• Dividend payout ratio leaves limited buyback capacity vs $VZ at similar yield
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