Nasdaq, Inc.
Financials · Financial Exchanges & Data
Structural: exchange-operator narrative is stale - over 75% of revenue is now recurring subscription / SaaS / index licensing, with transaction-based trading a minority. Adenza (regulatory reporting + Calypso risk) + Verafin (AML SaaS at ~2,600 banks) form a regulated-data annuity that competes more with $SPGI, $MSCI, and $ICE than with retail brokers.
(1) Index franchise - Nasdaq-100 ($QQQ + $QQQM AUM ~$370B) prints high-margin licensing dollars that compound with passive flows; (2) Verafin TAM expansion from US community banks into Tier-1 + non-bank fintech is early innings; (3) Adenza Basel IV / FRTB regulatory tailwind locks in multi-year renewals; (4) IPO pipeline at the Nasdaq venue recovers as $2024-2025 backlog unclogs; (5) margin mix-shift as SaaS grows faster than capital-light trading.
(1) Adenza was bought near peak fintech multiples - integration + cross-sell must materialize or goodwill impairs; (2) listings share vs $NYSE/ICE remains a brand fight; (3) index licensing is concentrated - Invesco ($QQQ) is the dominant payer and renegotiation risk is a tail; (4) $CBOE + $ICE compete in options + data; (5) interest-expense drag from Adenza debt load weighs on FCF conversion until 2027.
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