PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Financials · Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Structural read: PYPL is the legacy leader in online checkout (~45% of US e-comm checkout pages still embed the button) facing real share erosion from Shop Pay, $AAPL Pay, and direct card-on-file. 69%) as low-margin Braintree mix grew. Chriss-era thesis is profitable-growth: trade volume for transaction margin dollars, monetize Venmo's 90M+ US users via debit card + merchant ads, and turn checkout into an ad surface (Smart Receipts AI, Fastlane).
- Transaction margin $ growing 7-9% Y/Y even with TPV deceleration - pricing discipline working
- Fastlane (guest checkout) live with Adyen, Shopify partners; early conversion uplift data 80%+ vs guest
- Venmo monetization runway: debit card spend +30%, Pay-with-Venmo merchant count climbing
- $6B+ annual buyback at ~9× fwd P/E shrinks share count ~7%/yr; ~$15B net cash
- AI Smart Receipts + targeted ads = high-margin optionality on 400M+ active accounts
- Branded checkout volume share losing 100-200bps/yr to Shop Pay + $AAPL Pay native flows
- Take rate floor unknown; Braintree unit economics structurally below branded
- Active accounts flat ~430M for 2 years, MAU declining - top-of-funnel broken
- Ad/commerce monetization unproven at scale vs $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN
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