NXP Semiconductors N.V.
Information Technology · Semiconductors
Structural read: NXPI is the cleanest pure-play on auto content/$ growth - auto = ~56% of FY24 revenue, with content-per-vehicle compounding ~9%/yr as EV powertrains and ADAS displace legacy ICE BOMs. Secure connectivity (NFC, UWB) is the second leg - Apple iPhone secure element + Ultra Wideband sockets are a quiet annuity.
Cyclically lagging the broader semi tape: auto inventory destock through 2026 H1, China local-substitution pressure on low-end MCUs, and Tier 1 design-cycle inertia cap near-term growth at GDP+.
- Auto content/$: $480 (2024) → ~$650 by 2028 on ADAS L2+/EV mix; NXPI captures ~10% of total auto semi TAM
- Secure connectivity: UWB sockets in $AAPL iPhone + AirTag + automotive digital key (BMW, Hyundai) - fab-light, high-margin
- 50%+ gross margin floor through last cycle low - pricing discipline + 28nm/16nm specialty node moat
- $9.7B contracted backlog visibility through 2030 (NXP 2024 capital markets day)
- China low-end MCU substitution ($GIGA, $NSING) compressing entry-tier auto/industrial pricing
- Auto OEMs (Stellantis, VW) cutting EV production cuts MCU + BMS unit pull-through
- $WOLF / $ON SiC encroaching on traction inverter sockets - NXPI has no IDM SiC story
- Industrial/IoT segment (~20% rev) still bottoming - multi-quarter destock vs $TXN $ADI
- High-end ADAS chip race ($NVDA Orin/Thor, $QCOM Ride) - NXPI S32 platform fighting for socket wins
No key levels recorded for this ticker.