Texas Instruments Incorporated
Information Technology · Semiconductors
Largest pure-play analog + embedded semi vendor; ~$16B revenue base across industrial (~35%), auto (~35%), personal electronics, comms, enterprise. com channel, internal 300mm manufacturing scale. Structural story is the $30B+ multi-fab CHIPS-supported build-out (Sherman TX SM1/SM2, Lehi AZ LFAB, Richardson RFAB) shifting >95% of internal wafers to 300mm by ~2030 - analog die cost drops ~40% vs 200mm.
- Capex peak behind by ~2027; FCF/share recovers as depreciation lags revenue
- Industrial + auto inventory destock cycle in late innings; book-to-bill turning
- 300mm cost curve = structural gross margin advantage vs $ADI, $MCHP, $ON
- US-fab footprint = CHIPS Act credits + DoD/auto OEM onshoring premium
- Capital return: ~$5B/yr buyback + dividend (~3% yield), 21yr dividend growth
- Capex intensity ~25% of revenue (vs ~10% historical); FCF compressed through 2026
- China analog substitution risk ($SMIC, local incumbents) on commodity power mgmt
- Auto + industrial cyclicality; recovery slope uncertain
- $ADI catching up on signal-chain mix; share loss at top OEMs possible
- Forward P/E re-rated above 10yr avg before earnings inflect
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