Rambus Inc.
Information Technology · Semiconductors
Structural: memory bandwidth is the binding constraint on AI accelerators, and every DDR5 RDIMM/MRDIMM in a server needs $RMBS or a competitor's RCD/DB chipset. Rambus is one of three credible DDR5 RCD vendors ($MU-aligned, Renesas, Montage) and the share gain story is the DDR5 ramp into server refresh - content per socket steps up 2-3x vs DDR4 with MRDIMM.
Second leg: HBM/CXL/PCIe controller IP licensed into AI ASICs and hyperscaler custom silicon ($AVGO, $MRVL, Trainium, TPU) - royalty bps on every accelerator shipped. Third leg: security IP - root-of-trust + crypto accelerators showing up in automotive, AI inference, post-quantum migration.
(1) DDR5 server attach >90% by 2026, MRDIMM ramp adds content; (2) HBM4 and CXL 3.0 controller IP wins keep royalty stream compounding; (3) security IP a stealth grower on post-quantum mandate; (4) fabless model - gross margin 60%+, low capex, FCF-rich; (5) buyback active.
(1) cyclically tied to DDR5 mix shift - server memory air pocket hits product revenue; (2) royalty cliff risk on legacy patents; (3) Montage Tech / Renesas competition compresses RCD share; (4) customer concentration in 3-4 fabless designers; (5) multiple expansion already prices in HBM royalty optionality.
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