AI Inference

Stocks · key Fib levels

• ALABAstera Labs, Inc.

  $319.74last

  $186.00fib

  +71.9%vs fib
  anchored by Amazon AWS · Microsoft Azure · Google Cloud · Meta · NVIDIA · Dell · Supermicro
  • ▸2026 Q1: Scorpio P-Series PCIe Gen6 fabric switches sampling to hyperscalers; production ramp guided H2 2026.
  • ▸2025 Q4: Disclosed design wins on NVDA GB300 NVL72 platform - Aries + Scorpio attach.
  • ▸2025: Sole-source PCIe retimer on multiple AWS Trainium2 / Inferentia server SKUs.
  • ▸2025: COSMOS software suite extended to fleet-wide telemetry across all four product lines.
  • ▸2024 Q1: IPO at $36 (Mar 2024), priced above range; first pure-play AI interconnect public listing.
• AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc.

  $500.94last

  $253.00fib

  +98.0%vs fib
  anchored by Microsoft · Meta · Oracle · OpenAI · Google · Amazon
  • ▸2024-12: $MSFT Azure ND MI300X VM series GA - first hyperscaler MI300 production deployment
  • ▸2025-02: $META disclosed MI300X internal inference workload at scale (Llama serving)
  • ▸2025-06: $ORCL OCI MI300X bare-metal instances live; multi-billion commitment disclosed
  • ▸2025-10: MI325X launch - 256GB HBM3E, shipping to hyperscaler anchors Q4 2025
  • ▸2026-Q1: MI350 series (CDNA4, 3nm) sampling; production ramp H2 2026
  • ▸2026-Q1: ZT Systems acquisition closed - rack-scale AI systems integration in-house
  • ▸2026-04: EPYC Turin (5th gen, Zen 5) shipping; cited in $ORCL, $GOOG, $AMZN earnings as standard fleet CPU
• ARMArm Holdings plc

  $262.01last

  $185.00fib

  +41.6%vs fib
  anchored by NVIDIA · Apple · AWS · Google · Microsoft · Meta · Qualcomm · MediaTek · Samsung
  • ▸2024-02 - Microsoft Cobalt 100 announced - first MSFT-custom Arm server CPU; Azure deployment broadens
  • ▸2024-04-09 - Google Axion (Arm v9) announced for GCP general-purpose compute
  • ▸2024-05 - Apple M4 launched (3nm, all-Arm v9 across M-series, A18 Pro across iPhone, S-chip across watch)
  • ▸2024-11 - AWS Graviton4 GA; Arm Neoverse V2 powers 50%+ of EC2 compute hours within targeted SKUs
  • ▸2025 - NVIDIA Grace + Blackwell shipping at scale (Arm v9 Neoverse V2 paired with every Blackwell GPU); Rubin generation continues the Arm pairing
  • ▸2025-09 - Google Axion GA on GCP
  • ▸2026-Q1 - Apple M5 (3nm successor, Arm v9.x) + A19 Pro launch maintain Apple's 100% Arm-silicon stack
  • ▸2026 - Compute Subsystems (CSS) chiplet IP in production-ready hyperscaler programs; royalty per AI accelerator unit rises as CSS-licensed designs ship
• AVGOBroadcom Inc.

  $374.45last

  $336.00fib

  +11.4%vs fib
  anchored by Alphabet · Meta Platforms · Apple · undisclosed third hyperscaler
  • ▸**Nov 2023** - Closed $69B VMware acquisition; began subscription conversion + portfolio trim
  • ▸**Sep 2024** - Disclosed third large hyperscaler XPU customer in development (unnamed)
  • ▸**Dec 2024** - Guided AI semi SAM to $60-90B by FY27 across 3 hyperscaler customers
  • ▸**2024-2026** - $GOOGL TPU v5/v6/v7 silicon co-design (multi-generation)
  • ▸**2024-2026** - $META MTIA v1/v2 inference + training silicon partner
  • ▸**2026** - Multi-year $AAPL wireless component extension signed; RF baseline through FY28+
  • ▸**Ongoing** - Tomahawk 5 (51.2T) shipping; Tomahawk 6 (102.4T) sampling for AI scale-out fabrics
• CBRSCerebras Systems Inc.

  $180.46last

  - fib
  $24.6B backlog750 MWanchored by G42 · MBZUAI (Mohamed bin Zayed University of AI) · OpenAI · Amazon Web Services
  • ▸2024-09 - First S-1 filed; later withdrawn after CFIUS opened a review of G42's minority stake
  • ▸2025-10 - CFIUS review concluded after G42 holding restructured to non-voting shares; path cleared for listing
  • ▸2025-12-24 - NVIDIA's $20B Groq asset/license acquisition (read-through: frontier inference market partitioning into a specialist tier; NVDA buying in rather than ceding the lane)
  • ▸2026-01-14 - OpenAI deal signed: 750 MW of low-latency compute through 2028. Initial press value $10B; subsequent MRA disclosures place binding commitments at >$20B with expansion provisions up to 2 GW by 2030
  • ▸2026-02 - Hiive private secondary implied ~$23B valuation (IPO 3 months later doubled this)
  • ▸2026-03-13 - AWS announced Cerebras as first cloud provider for disaggregated inference on Amazon Bedrock; Trainium + WSE pairing claims "5× more high-speed token capacity in the same hardware footprint"
  • ▸2026-05-13 - IPO priced $185 (above $150-160 range, walked up from original $115-125); book reportedly 20× oversubscribed
  • ▸2026-05-14 - Day 1 open $350, close $311.07 (+68.2%); $5.55B raised on 30M shares; $48.8B fully-diluted valuation; 2026's largest US tech IPO
  • ▸2026-Q3 (est) - Accelerated lockup: 60M+ shares unlock by Q2 2026 earnings release, ~2× IPO float hitting tape inside 90 days (vs standard 180-day expiry mid-November 2026)
  • ▸Snapshot 2026-05-18: price ~$311, mcap ~$48.8B fully-diluted (~157M sh × $311), 2025 revenue $510M (+76% YoY from $290M), 2025 GAAP net income $237.8M but operating loss $145.9M
  • ▸Customer concentration: G42 (24% of 2025 rev, was 85% in 2024) + MBZUAI (62%) = ~86% UAE-linked, both flagged as related parties in the S-1; apparent 2025 diversification away from G42 was reallocation between connected Abu Dhabi entities, not new customer acquisition
  • ▸Backlog concentration: ~$24.6B disclosed, of which ~80% is OpenAI; revenue recognition gated by OpenAI's own datacenter buildout pace (power + zoning, not chips)
  • ▸Setup tension: first specialist inference accelerator on the public tape, but the entire forward business is explained by three customers (G42, MBZUAI, OpenAI) through 2028; GAAP profitability is non-operating (the $237.8M net income line is not a sustainable run-rate while operating loss continues); fast lockup creates structural supply pressure ~Q3 2026; inference TAM is contestable and workload-specific (21× B200 advantage on Llama 3 70B reasoning doesn't generalize to training, embeddings, or image gen)
  • ▸Editorial deep-dive: /articles/cerebras-cbrs-ipo
• CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd

  $207.97last

  $148.00fib

  +40.5%vs fib
  anchored by Microsoft · Amazon Web Services · Intel Foundry · Samsung Foundry · TE Connectivity
  • ▸**Microsoft** - anchor AEC customer; multi-year ramp into Azure AI back-end fabric; disclosed >40% of revenue concentration in FY25 10-K
  • ▸**Amazon (AWS)** - second hyperscaler AEC design win; Trainium/Inferentia cluster fabric ramp through CY26
  • ▸**Third US hyperscaler** - disclosed in FY26 guide as ramping; widely believed to be $META or $GOOGL
  • ▸**Intel Foundry** - 5nm/3nm SerDes IP licensing engagement
  • ▸**Samsung Foundry** - SerDes IP partnership on advanced nodes
  • ▸**TE Connectivity** - joint AEC + connector reference designs for OCP/OAI form factors
• INTCIntel Corporation

  $96.98last

  $60.00fib

  +61.6%vs fib
  anchored by Amazon Web Services · Microsoft · Dell · HP · Lenovo · Department of Defense · IBM Cloud
  • ▸2024-02: CHIPS Act award - $8.5B grant + $11B loan for Arizona/Ohio/New Mexico fabs
  • ▸2024-09: Amazon Web Services ($AMZN) - multi-year 18A custom AI fabric chip + Xeon 6 supply deal
  • ▸2024-09: Microsoft ($MSFT) - 18A custom chip design win (disclosed at Direct Connect 2024)
  • ▸2025-01: Department of Defense - Secure Enclave / RAMP-C trusted-fab Phase 3 award
  • ▸2025-Q2: Altera carve-out - Silver Lake acquires 51% at $8.75B EV
  • ▸2026-Q1: Gaudi 3 - IBM Cloud ($IBM) and Dell ($DELL) as launch infrastructure partners
• MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc.

  $188.30last

  $126.00fib

  +49.4%vs fib
  anchored by AWS · Microsoft · Google · Meta · Hyperscalers (undisclosed third + fourth)
  • ▸2021 - Inphi acquisition closed ($10B) - coherent-optical DSP leadership
  • ▸2024 - AWS Trainium2 + Trainium3 custom-silicon programs ramping
  • ▸2024 - Microsoft Maia 100 / successor program co-designed with Marvell
  • ▸2025 - Coherent-optical DSPs inside 800G + 1.6T pluggables shipping in volume
  • ▸2025-Q4 - Hyperscaler AI silicon revenue mix climbing; legacy networking mix shrinking as share of revenue
  • ▸2026-Q1 - Quarterly print; AI silicon revenue commentary the watch
  • ▸2026 - Multi-generation custom AI ASIC programs visible 2-3 years forward
• RMBSRambus Inc.

  $101.42last

  - fib
  anchored by Micron · SK Hynix · Samsung · AMD · Marvell
  • ▸**2026-Q1**: DDR5 server chipset revenue at multi-year high; MRDIMM design wins ramping into 2H26.
  • ▸**2026**: HBM4 controller IP licensed to multiple AI accelerator customers (undisclosed hyperscaler ASIC programs).
  • ▸**2025**: PCIe 6.0 and CXL 3.0 controller IP shipped - qualified into early adopters.
  • ▸**2025**: Security IP design wins in automotive ADAS and post-quantum crypto programs.
  • ▸**Ongoing**: Patent license renewals with $MU, $SK Hynix, Samsung - royalty backbone.

Co-movement matrix (252d)