Snap Inc.
Communication Services · Interactive Media & Services
Structural read: ad-platform laggard burning cash to stay relevant. DAU growth has shifted to ROW (India, Indonesia) where ARPU is a fraction of NA - top-line growth no longer maps to margin. Cost reset (headcount −10% in 2024, infra renegotiation with $GOOGL Cloud and $AMZN AWS) has narrowed losses but not produced sustained GAAP profitability.
AR Spectacles v5 (developer-only, $99/mo lease) is the moonshot but a decade-out monetization story.
- Snapchat+ subs ~14M at $3.99/mo = ~$670M ARR high-margin overlay on ad business
- DAU ~453M still growing y/y (low-to-mid single digits)
- AR/ML stack (Lens Studio, MyAI) is genuine tech moat if generative-AR breaks out
- $META/$GOOGL antitrust overhang could redistribute ad share
- ad revenue per DAU still below pre-IDFA peak; pricing power weak
- direct-response ad performance trails $META by wide margin (advertiser ROAS gap)
- TikTok ($BABA-adjacent ByteDance) compresses time-spent on Snapchat among <25 demo
- AR Spectacles is multi-year cash drain with no clear consumer SKU
- stock at ~$5 is below 2017 IPO price; founder dual-class structure limits activist pressure
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