What are the top stocks in the AI-Capex Hyperscalers bubble?

QuantAbundancia maps 5 primary stocks to the AI-Capex Hyperscalers bubble: MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOGL, ORCL.

What ETFs carry the AI-Capex Hyperscalers thesis?

4 ETFs on QuantAbundancia carry the AI-Capex Hyperscalers thesis: XLK (primary), MAGS, SKYY, VGT.

How correlated are AI-Capex Hyperscalers stocks?

The AI-Capex Hyperscalers bubble's primary members co-move with a 252-day average correlation of 0.28 across 10 pairs - weak co-movement.

AI-Capex Hyperscalers

The subset of mega-caps whose AI capex narrative dominates price action.

0.275avg corr (252d)

0.12 / 0.45min / max

10pairs

5primary stocks

4etfs

Weak co-movement

Stocks

MSFTMicrosoft Corporation
Azure + OpenAI + Copilot.
$401.10
AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.
AWS + Bedrock + Trainium.
$249.89
$232fib+8%
METAMeta Platforms, Inc.
Largest Nvidia customer, Llama.
$664.54
GOOGLAlphabet Inc. Class A
Diverges from MSFT/META/AMZN cluster (252d corr). Distinct AI-capex trajectory.
$354.46
$272fib+30%
ORCLOracle Corporation
Diverges from core hyperscaler cluster (252d corr). OCI/Stargate narrative is idiosyncratic.
$124.21
Adjacent (secondary)
BRUNBoost Run, Inc.
Micro-cap neocloud (GPU-as-a-service) in the CoreWeave / Nebius cohort; rents AI compute capacity rather than operating its own models. Mapped to hyperscalers (same as NBIS) as the closest existing home; candidate to anchor a dedicated "Neocloud / GPU-as-a-Service" bubble once CRWV / NBIS / IREN / APLD are grouped.
$23.81
MAMastercard Incorporated
Classifier 2026-05-07: extended tier, corr 0.45 to hyperscalers centroid (29 obs, 2nd: ai-software 0.379). is_primary_bubble=FALSE.
$551.54
NBISNebius Group N.V.
Classifier 2026-05-07: extended tier, corr 0.34 to hyperscalers centroid (29 obs, 2nd: memory 0.342). is_primary_bubble=FALSE.
$171.77
$113fib+52%
SNAPSnap Inc.
Classifier 2026-05-07: extended tier, corr 0.42 to hyperscalers centroid (29 obs, 2nd: ai-software 0.299). is_primary_bubble=FALSE.
$4.69

Correlation matrix (252d)

	AMZN	GOOGL	META	MSFT	ORCL
AMZN	·	0.45	0.44	0.34	0.13
GOOGL	0.45	·	0.28	0.12	0.18
META	0.44	0.28	·	0.28	0.17
MSFT	0.34	0.12	0.28	·	0.36
ORCL	0.13	0.18	0.17	0.36	·

Ticker order reflects hierarchical clustering assignment. Tighter green blocks on the diagonal = stronger sub-clusters within the bubble.

ETF flows (30d)

30 days with data

+$5.64B

net flow · 30d

$123.9B

bubble AUM

+$5.13B

biggest inflow

-$3.83B

biggest outflow

Daily net ETF creations minus redemptions across primary ETFs in the bubble. Green = capital in, red = capital out. Computed nightly from issuer NAV + shares-outstanding data.

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Research

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ETFs carrying the thesis

XLKPrimary
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund
State Street
-
MAGS
Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF
Roundhill
-
SKYY
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
First Trust
-
VGT
Vanguard Information Technology ETF
Vanguard
-

Sub-clusters

Frequently asked questions

What are the top stocks in the AI-Capex Hyperscalers bubble?: QuantAbundancia maps 5 primary stocks to the AI-Capex Hyperscalers bubble: MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOGL, ORCL.
What ETFs carry the AI-Capex Hyperscalers thesis?: 4 ETFs on QuantAbundancia carry the AI-Capex Hyperscalers thesis: XLK (primary), MAGS, SKYY, VGT.
How correlated are AI-Capex Hyperscalers stocks?: The AI-Capex Hyperscalers bubble's primary members co-move with a 252-day average correlation of 0.28 across 10 pairs - weak co-movement.