Mastercard Incorporated
Financials · Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Toll-booth on global card volume - duopoly with $V, ~57% operating margin, capital-light. Three structural legs: (1) domestic switched-transaction take rate, (2) cross-border (FX-attached, highest margin), (3) value-added services (~38% of net revenue and growing double-digits).
- Cross-border volume re-accelerating post-2024; FX fees scale with travel + e-commerce
- Value-added services (cyber, intelligence, consulting) 15%+ growth, less rate-regulated
- Commercial + B2B (~$80T addressable) still single-digit penetrated vs consumer card
- Open banking (Finicity) + real-time rails (Vocalink) extend moat beyond card scheme
- Buyback + dividend yield ~1% on capital-light model; FCF conversion >90%
- Interchange/network-fee regulation risk in EU, UK, US (CCCA), Brazil
- Account-to-account rails (Pix, UPI, FedNow) bypass the network on domestic flows
- Stablecoin/USDC rails threaten cross-border take rate on the 5-10y horizon
- $V is structurally larger (~2x GDV share) - MA premium multiple needs growth gap to hold
- Recession-sensitive on discretionary + cross-border travel
No major news in the last 7 days for MA - only listicles and opinion pieces, which we filter out by default. See everything anyway.
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