Visa Inc. (Class A)
Financials · Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Visa is a payments toll road. Take rate on $15T+ annual payments volume, ~60% operating margins, near-duopoly with $MA in card rails. Structural shift from cash to digital payments still has runway in emerging markets; cross-border (highest-yield segment) recovering post-COVID; new flows (Visa Direct, B2B Connect, RTP) expanding TAM beyond consumer card.
- Network effect moat - 4.6B cards issued, 130M+ merchant locations, switching costs near-infinite
- Cross-border volume premium (~7x domestic take rate) leveraged to travel + e-commerce
- Operating leverage - fixed-cost network, every incremental swipe drops to margin
- Visa Direct + B2B Connect open non-card flows (payroll, remittance, insurance payouts)
- Capital-light compounder - 50%+ FCF margin, buybacks + dividend
- Stablecoin + account-to-account rails (Pix, UPI, FedNow) threaten card economics over 5-10yr
- Antitrust scrutiny - DOJ debit suit (2026), EU interchange caps, merchant fee pushback
- Regulatory risk on interchange in US/EU/UK - durbin-style caps compress take rate
- Consumer payments saturated in developed markets - growth depends on EM + new flows execution
- $AAPL Pay / $GOOGL Pay sit on top but could disintermediate via wallet-level rerouting
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