AbbVie Inc.
Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Post-Humira-LOE pharma re-up: Skyrizi + Rinvoq combined are tracking to surpass peak Humira revenue ($20B+ run-rate), with management guiding ex-Humira growth >$27B by 2027. 7B) added emraclidine for schizophrenia (Phase II miss late-2024 reset the bull case).
- Skyrizi + Rinvoq label expansion (IBD, PsA, AS) extending IO duopoly through 2030s
- Botox + Juvederm: pricing power + recurring procedure cadence, recession-resistant aesthetics
- Oncology re-tooling via ADC (Elahere) + Venclexta combos absorbing Imbruvica decline
- Dividend aristocrat heritage (Abbott split): >$6/share annual, 50+ year track record
- Humira US biosimilar erosion still rolling through 2026 ($15B+ revenue cliff absorbed but margin compression real)
- Cerevel emraclidine Phase II failure (2024) wiped $20B+ pipeline NPV; oncology pipeline less differentiated than $LLY $MRK
- IRA Medicare price negotiation hits Imbruvica 2026, Rinvoq + Skyrizi 2028 - political tail risk
- Net debt >$60B post-Cerevel + ImmunoGen; deleveraging competing with buybacks
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