Amgen Inc.
Health Care · Biotechnology
Established biotech cashflow ($33B+ revenue run-rate) wrapped around a binary obesity catalyst. Repatha + Prolia + Tezspire growing double-digits offset Enbrel biosimilar erosion. MariTide Phase 3 readouts in obesity/T2D are the structural re-rate path - monthly dosing vs weekly $LLY/$NVO injectables is the differentiated wedge.
- MariTide Phase 3 OBESITY-1/2 readouts 2026-2027; monthly dosing = adherence wedge vs $LLY $NVO weekly
- Repatha trajectory toward $5B+; Tezspire (with $AZN) ramping in severe asthma
- Horizon rare-disease portfolio (Tepezza, Krystexxa) adds non-GLP-1 cashflow leg
- ~$33B revenue run-rate funds R&D + ~3% dividend yield
- Enbrel faces accelerating biosimilar erosion post-2029 IRA negotiation
- Horizon deal added ~$28B net debt; deleveraging gates capital returns
- MariTide Phase 2 GI tolerability signals; Phase 3 binary against $LLY orforglipron oral
- Prolia loses exclusivity 2025-2026; biosimilars already filed
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