Agnico Eagle Mines Limited
Materials · Gold
5M oz/yr, 100% Tier-1 jurisdictions (Canada 75%+, Finland, Mexico, Australia) - geopolitical risk discount vs $GOLD/$NEM peers operating in Africa/PNG/LatAm. Reserves 54M oz, ~15yr mine life post-Yamana. AISC low $1,200s/oz vs spot >$2,300 = ~45% cash margin.
Net debt cut sharply 2024-2025; investment-grade BBB+.
(1) gold spot regime - central-bank buying + real-rate compression + fiscal-dominance bid sustains $2,200+ floor; (2) Detour Lake underground expansion lifts production toward 4M oz by 2028 with no acquisition needed; (3) Canadian Malartic Odyssey ramp adds 500-600k oz/yr at sub-$900 AISC; (4) lowest-jurisdiction-risk senior trades at premium multiple - re-rating room vs $NEM; (5) free cash flow at $2,300 gold ~$3B/yr funds dividend + buyback + organic growth simultaneously.
(1) gold is the thesis - a real-rate normalization or DXY squeeze breaks the multiple regardless of operational quality; (2) cost inflation (diesel, labor, grid power in Quebec/Nunavut) compresses margin if gold stalls; (3) Detour underground capex front-loaded 2026-2028; (4) Nunavut operations (Meadowbank/Meliadine) face declining grades - replacement reserves not yet identified; (5) sector-wide ETF flows ($GDX) drive correlation, idiosyncratic alpha limited.
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