Endeavour Silver Corp.
Materials · Silver Mining
Structural: high-beta silver pure-play with ~60-65% revenue from silver, ~30-35% gold by-product; AISC tracks $20-23/oz silver-equivalent at Guanacevi vs spot. Mexican operating base concentrates jurisdictional risk but also taps the world's deepest silver belt.
Pitarrilla buildout (CapEx ~$280M, target start 2026-2027) is the production-doubling lever; Kolpa adds zinc/lead/copper diversification post-2024 acquisition. Float ~270M shares with chronic equity issuance to fund growth.
(1) silver leveraged ~2x to gold on industrial demand (solar PV +PV inverters, EV electronics); (2) Pitarrilla economic study points to ~15Moz/yr silver-eq at full ramp - would roughly double consolidated output; (3) Kolpa integration adds base-metal cash flow buffer that smooths silver cycles; (4) Mexico ban on open-pit concessions does NOT touch existing underground operations; (5) thin float + retail silver-squeeze reflex makes EXK a high-beta vehicle vs $SLV / $SIL.
(1) Guanacevi grade reserves declining - 2025 guidance shows lower head grades vs 2023; (2) Mexican AMLO/Sheinbaum administration mining royalty + water permitting overhang; (3) chronic share dilution to fund Pitarrilla - fully-diluted count drifts ~5-8%/yr; (4) AISC creeping toward spot in low-silver regimes makes margin razor-thin below $24/oz; (5) Kolpa is post-acquisition integration risk in unfamiliar Peruvian jurisdiction.
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