AMC Entertainment Holdings
Communication Services · Movies & Entertainment
Structural: secular box-office decline accelerated by streaming windows + premium-large-format competition ($IMAX). Theatrical attendance still ~25% below 2019 baseline; AMC carries ~$4B net debt against thin EBITDA. Stubs A-List subscription is the only recurring-revenue leg; F&B per-cap is the margin lever.
(1) 2026 slate density (Avatar 3, Mandalorian, Avengers Doomsday) drives box-office mean-reversion. (2) Refinanced 2026 maturities buy runway into 2029. (3) Meme-stock float dynamics produce recurring squeeze windows uncorrelated to fundamentals.
(4) Premium-format upcharge (IMAX/Dolby) carries 70%+ gross margin. (5) F&B per-cap growth offsets attendance weakness.
(1) Streaming-day-and-date windows compressing 45d to 17d kills theatrical exclusivity. (2) Interest expense ~$400M/yr eats most operating cash flow. (3) Equity dilution via ATM offerings is structural (share count up ~10x since 2019). (4) Concession price inflation hitting attendance elasticity.
(5) Cinemark + Regal (Cineworld emerged) competing on premium-format capex. (6) Sub-$2 share price triggers reverse-split / delisting risk on NYSE compliance.
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