Aptiv PLC
Consumer Discretionary · Automotive Components
Structural: Aptiv is content-per-vehicle (CPV) on the EV + SDV (software-defined vehicle) curve - high-voltage architectures, zonal compute, ADAS L2+/L3 stacks. 3B) layers a real-time OS / edge-cloud software leg over the hardware. Motional AV JV with Hyundai paused 2026 - robotaxi optionality is no longer in the bull case.
- CPV expansion: ICE→BEV transition lifts electrical content ~2x; SDV adds ADAS compute + zonal controllers.
- Wind River cross-sell: embedded OS into auto cockpit + 5G RAN (Verizon, Vodafone deployments).
- New business bookings remain >$30B/yr - multi-year revenue visibility.
- Margin self-help: footprint rationalization + LATAM/APAC mix.
- Spin-off optionality: 2026 plan to separate Electrical Distribution Systems unit.
- Auto-cyclical: Tier-1 with negative operating leverage when OEM production cuts.
- China exposure: BYD / Geely insource electronics; share loss risk on local platforms.
- ADAS pricing pressure: $NVDA Drive + $MBLY + Tier-1 commoditization compresses BoM economics.
- BEV demand pushout (Stellantis, Ford, GM) defers high-voltage CPV uplift.
- Motional writedown overhang; AV optionality marked at zero.
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