Ford Motor Company
Consumer Discretionary · Automobiles
Ford is a three-segment barbell: Ford Pro (commercial + software + service) and Ford Blue (F-Series, Bronco) print the cash; Ford Model e burns it. S. best-selling truck franchise for 48+ years and anchors gross margin. 5M+ vehicle paid-subscription base.
Ford Credit (captive lender) adds a financial-services leg that smooths cycle.
- F-Series + Super Duty volume gates ~50% of segment EBIT; ASP holding above $60k
- Ford Pro telematics + service generating ~20% EBIT margin, software ARR scaling
- Ford Credit book ~$140B, supports group ROE through downcycles
- Capex discipline post-2024 EV reset: deferred 2nd-gen EV platform spending
- Hybrid mix (Maverick, F-150 PowerBoost) outselling pure EVs at higher margin
- Model e loss run-rate ~$5B/yr; breakeven repeatedly pushed right
- Warranty + recall accruals chronically elevated vs $TSLA, $TM
- China JV exposure shrinking but still drags equity income
- UAW 2023 contract adds ~$900/vehicle structural cost through 2028
- Tariff overhang on Mexico-built Maverick + Bronco Sport if policy shifts
- Dividend ~6% yield is the holding thesis for many longs - cut risk if FCF compresses
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