BlackSky Technology Inc.
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Structural: Pure-play EO operator with ~15+ sats on-orbit (Gen-2) targeting sub-meter resolution and 90-min revisit; Gen-3 Pelican class adds 35cm imagery + onboard AI compute. Revenue mix shifting from one-shot tasking to multi-year IDIQ contracts (NRO EOCL, NGA Luno A) and international gov programs.
- NRO EOCL 10-yr framework ($1B+ ceiling across vendors) + Indonesia MoD $50M+ deal anchor multi-year backlog
- Gen-3 Pelican launches 2026 unlock 35cm + dynamic monitoring use cases, closing gap vs $MAXR / $PL
- Spectra AI is the margin lever - analytics revenue carries software-grade gross margin vs imagery transport
- Ukraine + Israel + Taiwan tensions structurally raise commercial EO demand from non-US allies
- Cash burn vs $80M revenue run-rate - dilution risk if Gen-3 slips or contract awards lump
- Competes with $PL (Planet Labs, daily global coverage) and $MAXR (sub-30cm legacy) - squeezed between low-res frequency and high-res quality
- Customer concentration: NRO + NGA + a handful of foreign MoDs; single award loss is 10%+ revenue hit
- Small-cap float, thin liquidity, retail-driven volatility around launch events and contract PRs
- Earth observation is capex-heavy; satellite replacement cycle (~5yr) means perpetual reinvestment
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